Ukraine has warned that Russian attacks on Black Sea shipping are putting more than 30 million tonnes of agricultural exports at risk, as vessel traffic to the country’s main ports remains largely suspended during the peak harvest season.
According to Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi, alternative export routes via rail, road and the Danube River are unlikely to reach stable operating capacity before the end of August and, even then, will be able to handle only 50-55% of the monthly cargo volumes normally shipped through Odesa’s Black Sea ports.
Russia has stepped up missile and drone attacks on foreign-flagged merchant vessels and port infrastructure in Ukraine’s Odesa region in recent weeks. The campaign has prompted many shipowners to suspend port calls, with no new vessels entering the main ports for nearly two weeks.
Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry reported 35 attacks on vessels in port, 22 attacks on ships at sea and 67 strikes on port infrastructure during July alone, compared with 14 attacks on vessels throughout all of 2025.
Vysotskyi said the disruption could prevent the export of more than 30 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds this season unless maritime operations are restored. He added that the current situation is, in some respects, more challenging than during the early months of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
The minister estimated direct losses to Ukraine’s agricultural sector this year at between $1.5 billion and $3 billion. Domestic grain and oilseed prices have already fallen by around 30% as exporters struggle to move cargo to international markets.
Rail transport is expected to become the primary alternative export route, while low water levels on the Danube have significantly reduced the river’s capacity until at least October. Even once fully operational, overland routes will increase transport costs by an estimated $45-50 per tonne, reducing producers’ competitiveness.
Ukraine exported 34.4 million tonnes of grain during the 2025/26 marketing season and expects around 43 million tonnes to be available for export this season. Vysotskyi warned that prolonged disruptions to Black Sea shipping could push up global food prices, particularly affecting countries that rely heavily on Ukrainian grain imports.
He also called on international partners to help improve security in the Black Sea, arguing that restoring safe maritime trade remains essential for maintaining global food supplies and Ukraine’s agricultural exports.
